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Sequence of Returns Risk
August 11, 2026
Sequence of returns risk is the danger that poor investment returns early in retirement, combined with regular withdrawals, shrink your portfolio. This can produce poor outcomes in later years, including completely running out of money. Here's how it works, and what you can do about it.
Returns for stocks and bonds
August 1, 2026
What are stocks and bonds actually expected to return, region by region? History favours the US for stocks; current valuations favour Europe for the next decade. Bonds show fewer differences: European yields have caught up to US yields, but Eurozone inflation eats more of that nominal return. Asia and emerging markets offer no reliable trend.
Hedging: yes or no?
July 29, 2026
Hedging against USD swings isn't free: the real cost is the interest rate differential between the US and the Eurozone - currently ~1.32% a year. These costs are not visible in the fund's TER. On a 4% USD yield, hedging eats a third of it. My rule: EUR exposure for most bonds, part of equities, rest unhedged.
Some important loose ends
July 28, 2026
The series on building my retirement portfolio skips five things that matter just as much as the portfolio itself: taxes, what to leave behind, adapting the plan over time, an emergency fund, and knowing when to stop managing it yourself. The first one deserves the most attention.