Withdrawal Simulator

How long does a portfolio last when you live off it? This simulator runs the withdrawal rules from my rulebook year by year: 4% in a good year, 3% in a bad one, and the rebalancing from Part 8. Pick a scenario to see what a bad start or a long crisis does, as described in the sequence-of-returns post and Dry Powder. The defaults are the example from Part 1.

How the simulator calculates

The simulator works year by year. First the year's return is applied, and that return decides whether it is a good year (more than the cutoff, 5% by default) or a bad one. Then the whole year's withdrawal is taken in one go, at the end of the year, and the portfolio is rebalanced. In real life I take out 1% per quarter, skip the last withdrawal in a bad year, and rebalance twice a year (Part 8). Taking the money out at year end is slightly more favourable: it stays invested a little longer.

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Disclaimer: this is a simulation of my own rules with the returns you enter, not a forecast and not investment advice. Real returns don't arrive as neat yearly averages, and what works for me may not suit your situation. Do your own research or talk to a financial advisor before you invest.